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11

Keen Talent

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 80

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

70%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Turfway Park 17/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m 122 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 84 par17/01C9OR 84C9 @ Turfway Park 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 79 parC9 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 75 par21/03C9OR 75C6 @ Charles Town 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 1m110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Laurel Park 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par5/06C8OR 82C8 @ Laurel Park 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 1m1f Fm 126 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 1m 123 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 82 par22/07C8OR 82C5 @ Charles Town 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Charles Town 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 79 par13/09C6OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Charles Town?1st-1th+2
2026-08-08Charles Town?3rd0th+3
2026-07-22Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-06-26Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-05Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-09Charles Town?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/019/0522/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +7.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20269th6/492%27%-0.65
20/02/20264th10/382%63%-0.20
21/03/20266th5/174%44%-0.29
09/05/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
05/06/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
26/06/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31
22/07/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
08/08/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
13/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21