Villain
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 28/03/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 04/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 14% | -0.78 |