1
Fiery Debut
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |