13
Long Straw
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/05/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |