8
Moonlit Frost
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 16/08/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |