15
Red Sea
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 9% | -0.57 |
| 30/07/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |