Sense The Moon

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 35

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

10%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-06	Colonial Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-08-15	Colonial Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +55.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/08/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
06/09/2026	7th	40/1	0%	40%	+0.40