Stoic Reserve

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 43

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼2

Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-27	Colonial Downs	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2026-08-13	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength91%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/07/2026	11th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/08/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	83%	+0.36
27/08/2026	8th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00