IvyArcIvyArc
9

Firmantown

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 85

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

30%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Laurel Park 05/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 6f 126 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 79 par5/02C7OR 79C7 @ Laurel Park 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 79 · 6f 126 · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 79 parC7 @ Laurel Park 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 6f 126 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 79 par20/03C7OR 79C5 @ Laurel Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 86 par15/05C5OR 86C5 @ Laurel Park 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 90 · 5f110y Yie 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 90 par13/07C5OR 90C5 @ Colonial Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 93 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 93 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 90 par20/08C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Colonial Downs?1st0th+1
2026-07-30Colonial Downs?5th4th+1
2026-07-13Colonial Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-06-07Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-05-15Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-04-12Laurel Park?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0212/0413/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/02/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
28/02/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
20/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/04/20267th11/486%33%-0.52
15/05/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
07/06/20262nd11/271%90%+0.19
13/07/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64
30/07/20265th10/382%43%-0.40
20/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63