IvyArcIvyArc
4

Neonate

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 83

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Monmouth Park 22/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f Fas 11922/06C6C9 @ Monmouth Park 27/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 40 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark27/07/2025 · OR 40 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 31/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 62 par31/08C6OR 62C9 @ Gulfstream 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 48 · 5f110y Fas 121 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 48 parC6 @ Gulfstream 14/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 68 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 68 par14/11C6OR 68C6 @ Gulfstream 08/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 71 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 71 parC5 @ Gulfstream 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 77 · 5f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 77 par30/05C5OR 77C5 @ Gulfstream 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 85 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 85 par30/07C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Colonial Downs?1st0th+1
2026-06-27Gulfstream?4th3rd+1
2026-05-30Gulfstream?3rd2nd+1
2026-01-08Gulfstream?6th6th0
2025-11-14Gulfstream?7th7th0
2025-10-17Gulfstream?1st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0617/1030/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20255th13/266%33%-0.32
27/07/20252nd20/10%83%+0.83
31/08/20257th25/10%0%0.00
17/10/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
14/11/20257th40/10%14%+0.14
08/01/20266th33/10%29%+0.29
30/05/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
27/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
30/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42