13
Bold Fact
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength32%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |