7
Frye Island
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 08/01/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |