4
Laysen
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 77
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |