3
Luca Machine
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 05/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/11/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |