1
Parkes
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |