6
Roommate Martin
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |