4
Stone Cold Kelly
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 70
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 02/05/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/07/2025 | 12th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |