Beyond Belief
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 91
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |