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Clawless Brit

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 92

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 12213/09C6C7 @ Fair Grounds 26/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 62 parC9 @ Fair Grounds 30/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 75 par30/01C9OR 75C7 @ Fair Grounds 19/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Laurel Park 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 5f110y Fm 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 93 par17/04C5OR 93C5 @ Laurel Park 31/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 90 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Laurel Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 89 par20/06C5OR 89C5 @ Colonial Downs 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 90 par10/07C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Colonial Downs?1st0th+1
2026-06-20Laurel Park?1st0th+1
2026-05-31Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-04-17Laurel Park?1st0th+1
2026-02-19Fair Grounds?1st2nd−1
2026-01-30Fair Grounds?4th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0919/0220/0610/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20257th10/382%0%-0.82
26/12/20256th14/126%44%+0.18
30/01/20264th11/271%63%-0.09
19/02/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
17/04/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
31/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
20/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18