6
Mopo
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 96
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 6 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 89% | -0.07 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |