Obstreperous
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 98
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |