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7

Somnium

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 98

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Penn National 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 5f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 88 par18/09C5OR 88C1 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 89 · 6f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 89 parC6 @ Laurel Park 21/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 95 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 95 par21/11C6OR 95C5 @ Aqueduct 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 6f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Penn National 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 92 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 92 par2/05C5OR 92C5 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 91 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Laurel Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 86 par12/06C6OR 86C5 @ Colonial Downs 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 96 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 96 parC5 @ Laurel Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 97 par12/09C5OR 97projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2026-08-01Colonial Downs?2nd1st+1
2026-06-12Laurel Park?1st1st0
2026-05-15Laurel Park?4th3rd+1
2026-05-02Penn National?1st0th+1
2026-04-17Aqueduct?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0917/0412/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
11/10/20254th40/10%67%+0.67
21/11/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
17/04/20268th10/147%0%-0.47
02/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
15/05/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
12/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
01/08/20262nd14/126%80%+0.54
12/09/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09