5
Barleewon
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 59
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Meadowlands | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 30/07/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |