IvyArcIvyArc
1

Marsala Monarch

8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Mountaineer 11/10/2023 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 73 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark11/10/2023 · OR 73 par11/10C8OR 73C8 @ Mountaineer 01/11/2023 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m Gd 123 · below its mark01/11/2023 · OR 66 parC8 @ Mountaineer 08/11/2023 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark08/11/2023 · OR 66 par8/11C8OR 66C8 @ Mountaineer 14/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 66 · 5f Fas 123 · below its mark14/09/2025 · OR 66 parC6 @ Mountaineer 22/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 66 par22/09C6OR 66C8 @ Mountaineer 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 53 · 5f 124 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 53 parC5 @ Mountaineer 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 56 · 5f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 56 par9/07C5OR 56C8 @ Mountaineer 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 62 · 7f 124 · below its mark05/08/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Mountaineer 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 66 · 7f Gd 124 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 66 par8/09C8OR 66projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Mountaineer?5th5th0
2026-08-05Mountaineer?5th5th0
2026-07-09Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-06-30Mountaineer?4th4th0
2025-09-22Mountaineer?7th5th+2
2025-09-14Mountaineer?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1014/099/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20236th25/10%0%0.00
01/11/20236th12/137%44%+0.08
08/11/20235th33/10%33%+0.33
14/09/20254th20/10%25%+0.25
22/09/20257th40/10%0%0.00
30/06/20264th40/10%57%+0.57
09/07/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
05/08/20265th20/10%0%0.00
08/09/20265th20/10%50%+0.50