Tricky Tiger
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 86
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 17/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |