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4

Valentine Bug

9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mountaineer 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 104 · 7f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 104 par3/09C6OR 104C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 102 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/09/2025 · OR 102 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 98 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 98 par29/09C6OR 98C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 99 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 99 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark03/11/2025 · OR 97 par3/11C8OR 97C8 @ Mountaineer 07/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 90 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 90 par17/06C6OR 90C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 91 · 6f 123 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 91 par19/09C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Presque Isle Downs?2nd0th+2
2026-08-25Presque Isle Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?3rd1st+2
2026-06-07Mountaineer?7th7th0
2025-11-03Mahoning Valley?5th5th0
2025-10-08Presque Isle Downs?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/098/1017/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20254th11/486%57%-0.28
22/09/20253rd8/158%50%-0.08
29/09/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
08/10/20256th15/890%0%-0.90
03/11/20255th6/168%20%-0.48
07/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
17/06/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
25/08/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
19/09/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72