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2

Machen Reigns

7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 56

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#12

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Mountaineer 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 72 par2/10C7OR 72C8 @ Mountaineer 13/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 56 · 6f 123 · below its mark13/10/2025 · OR 56 parC7 @ Mountaineer 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 60 par4/05C7OR 60C7 @ Mountaineer 27/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 58 · 7f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 58 parC7 @ Mountaineer 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 49 par8/06C7OR 49C8 @ Mountaineer 14/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 58 · 1m Slo 121 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 58 parC6 @ Mountaineer 12/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 52 · 7f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 52 par12/07C6OR 52C6 @ Mountaineer 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 51 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 51 parC5 @ Mountaineer 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 7f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 45 par30/08C5OR 45projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Mountaineer?3rd0th+3
2026-08-05Mountaineer?7th5th+2
2026-07-12Mountaineer?5th3rd+2
2026-06-14Mountaineer?8th8th0
2026-06-08Mountaineer?2nd1st+1
2026-05-27Mountaineer?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1027/0512/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20255th33/10%20%+0.20
13/10/20254th10/147%0%-0.47
04/05/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
27/05/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
08/06/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
14/06/20268th25/10%0%0.00
12/07/20265th33/10%20%+0.20
05/08/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
30/08/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12