Poema
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 81
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 16/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |