8
Shez Twisted
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |