4
Wicked Luna
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2023 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 01/07/2024 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 06/09/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |