A Little Bit Crazy

7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 76

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

7/5

Win Prob

21%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Mountaineer	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-09-07	Mountaineer	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-08-20	Mountaineer	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-07-09	Mountaineer	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-15	Mountaineer	?	1st	0th	+1	5.0
2024-10-19	Charles Town	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength74%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/08/2024	2nd	14/1	26%	86%	+0.59
03/09/2024	8th	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88
28/09/2024	3rd	20/1	0%	78%	+0.78
19/10/2024	6th	5/1	74%	44%	-0.29
15/06/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
09/07/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
20/08/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
07/09/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
14/09/2026	4th	5/1	74%	57%	-0.17