Alien Princess
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 66
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 21/04/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 21/05/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 02/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |