My Lucky Deia
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 69
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |