IvyArcIvyArc
9

La Fantastica

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 101

Remington Park · Race 7 - Ricks Memorial Stakes · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 09/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 87 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark09/03/2025 · OR 87 par9/03C6OR 87C6 @ Oaklawn Park 11/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 119 · below its mark11/04/2025 · OR 92 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 1m Slo 120 · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 87 par2/05C6OR 87C6 @ Churchill Downs 27/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 83 · 1m 121 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 81 par21/12C6OR 81C5 @ Sam Houston Race Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Lone Star 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 86 par31/05C5OR 86C5 @ Lone Star 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 90 parC5 @ Remington Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 95 par23/08C5OR 95projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Remington Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-28Lone Star?2nd2nd0
2026-05-31Lone Star?1st2nd−1
2026-03-28Sam Houston Race Park?1st2nd−1
2025-12-21Turfway Park?6th8th−2
2025-11-27Churchill Downs?5th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0327/1131/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20255th7/282%56%-0.26
11/04/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
02/05/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
27/11/20255th14/126%50%+0.24
21/12/20256th25/10%55%+0.55
28/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
31/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
28/06/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
23/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09