1
Long Ago
6yo Mare · 8-5 · OR 110
Remington Park · Race 7 - Ricks Memorial Stakes · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength100%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: +3.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 29/06/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |