IvyArcIvyArc
3

Heavenville

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 106

Remington Park · Race 8 - David M. Vance Stakes · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Remington Park 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 99 · 1m70y Fas 115 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 99 par10/10C5OR 99C5 @ Remington Park 21/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 99 · 1m Slo 118 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 99 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 12/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 98 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 98 par12/12C5OR 98C6 @ Sam Houston Race Park 17/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 90 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Sam Houston Race Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 90 par14/02C8OR 90C0 @ Sam Houston Race Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m 123C6 @ Lone Star 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 99 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 99 par3/05C6OR 99C5 @ Lone Star 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 106 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 106 parC5 @ Remington Park 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 107 · 6f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 107 par4/09C5OR 107projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Remington Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-20Lone Star?5th6th−1
2026-05-03Lone Star?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-28Sam Houston Race Park?1st1st0
2026-02-14Sam Houston Race Park?1st5th−3
2026-01-17Sam Houston Race Park?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1017/013/054/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength72%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20253rd7/491%67%-0.24
21/11/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
12/12/202511th25/10%9%+0.09
17/01/20264th9/488%40%-0.48
14/02/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
28/03/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
03/05/20262nd4/596%80%-0.16
20/06/20265th6/492%20%-0.72
04/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21