5
Taylor's Version
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 103
Remington Park · Race 8 - David M. Vance Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 27/06/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |