4
Barbacoa
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 83
Remington Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Lone Star | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 02/02/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 08/03/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 06/04/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 19/04/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |