IvyArcIvyArc
5

Waiting For You

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 101

Santa Anita · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Clairefontaine 11/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS11/07C5C5 @ Vichy 25/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Saint-Malo 18/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/08C5C1 @ Craon 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m44y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 29/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 122 · HIGHER CLASS29/09C1C1 @ Deauville 20/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f209y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Santa Anita 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m Fm 12015/05C6C6 @ Del Mar 17/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 102 parC6 @ Del Mar 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 101 par30/08C6OR 101projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Del Mar?2nd2nd0
2026-07-17Del Mar?5th5th0
2026-05-15Santa Anita?4th4th0
2025-10-20Deauville?6th0th+5
2025-09-29Bordeaux Le Bouscat?2nd-4th+5
2025-09-06Craon?3rd-3th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/076/0915/0530/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength90%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20253rd16/116%75%+0.59
25/07/20253rd7/282%80%-0.02
18/08/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
06/09/20253rd18/15%71%+0.66
29/09/20252nd17/255%91%+0.36
20/10/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
15/05/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
17/07/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
30/08/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86