7
Hondo Crouch
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 94
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength42%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2024 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 31/10/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |