1
Millbo Baggins
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 81
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength25%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |