3
Poppi's Charlie
2yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Santa Anita · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -26.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |