4
Smoke Rider
2yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 73
Santa Anita · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +16.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |