5
Howin
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 99
Santa Anita · Race 8 - Zenyatta S. Presented By Fanduel - Grade 2 · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-09-28 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-06-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 05/01/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 02/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |