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14

Conrad The Great

5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 32

Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 21/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f 12021/01C?C0 @ Sha Tin 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f Std 119C0 @ Sha Tin 01/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1181/04C?BHA44 @ Sha Tin 19/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 44 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 44 parC0 @ Sha Tin 06/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f Slo 1206/05C?4 @ Happy Valley 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m GF 118BHA40 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m Slo 115 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 40 par27/0640OR 40C0 @ Happy Valley 15/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m Goo 133C0 @ Happy Valley 09/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1299/09C?projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Happy Valley?12th12th0
2026-07-15Happy Valley?6th6th0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA407th7th0
2026-06-03Happy Valley49th9th0
2026-05-06Sha Tin?6th6th0
2026-04-19Sha TinBHA449th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0119/0427/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20265th25/10%64%+0.64
08/03/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
01/04/20262nd11/271%91%+0.20
19/04/20269th11/142%27%-0.15
06/05/20266th13/266%55%-0.11
03/06/20269th40/10%27%+0.27
27/06/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
15/07/20266th17/255%55%-0.01
09/09/202612th33/10%0%0.00