5
Happy Action
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 30
Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: BHA35
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA35 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA37 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA41 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 17/12/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 19/04/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 27/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 07/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 08/07/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |