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4

Rising Elite

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 36

Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class: BHA38
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 21/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 6f 12721/01C?BHA50 @ Sha Tin 14/02/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m Std 125 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 50 parC0 @ Happy Valley 04/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 1234/03C?C0 @ Sha Tin 01/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 121BHA44 @ Sha Tin 19/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 44 · 1m Gd 119 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 44 par19/0444OR 44BHA42 @ Sha Tin 24/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 42 · 6f Gd 119 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 42 par4 @ Happy Valley 10/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 11710/064BHA40 @ Sha Tin 12/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 40 · 6f GF 116 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 40 parBHA38 @ Sha Tin 06/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 38 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 38 par6/0938OR 38projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Sha TinBHA3812th12th0
2026-07-12Sha TinBHA405th5th0
2026-06-10Happy Valley45th5th0
2026-05-24Sha TinBHA425th5th0
2026-04-19Sha TinBHA4414th14th0
2026-04-01Sha Tin?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/011/0410/066/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20269th80/10%27%+0.27
14/02/202614th125/10%0%0.00
04/03/202610th66/10%18%+0.18
01/04/20267th100/10%45%+0.45
19/04/202614th100/10%0%0.00
24/05/20265th80/10%69%+0.69
10/06/20265th11/142%64%+0.22
12/07/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
06/09/202612th8/158%15%-0.43