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Turf Phoenix

5yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 22

Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 8.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA45 @ Sha Tin 21/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 45 · 7f Yie 120 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 45 par21/0945OR 45BHA43 @ Sha Tin 12/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m Gd 118 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 43 parBHA41 @ Sha Tin 09/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 41 · 1m Gd 116 · beat its mark09/11/2025 · OR 41 par9/1141OR 41BHA38 @ Sha Tin 07/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 38 · 1m Std 133 · beat its mark07/12/2025 · OR 38 parC0 @ Sha Tin 01/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f Gd 1301/01C?C0 @ Happy Valley 28/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 5f Gd 128C0 @ Happy Valley 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 12522/04C?BHA29 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 29 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 29 parC0 @ Happy Valley 09/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1199/09C?projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Happy Valley?10th10th0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA2912th12th0
2026-04-22Happy Valley?3rd3rd0
2026-01-28Happy Valley?11th11th0
2026-01-01Sha Tin?8th8th0
2025-12-07Sha TinBHA3811th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/097/1222/049/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/20259th80/10%38%+0.38
12/10/20259th66/10%38%+0.38
09/11/202513th80/10%8%+0.08
07/12/202511th33/10%23%+0.23
01/01/20268th40/10%46%+0.46
28/01/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
22/04/20263rd28/10%82%+0.82
17/05/202612th12/137%0%-0.37
09/09/202610th20/10%18%+0.18