13
Viva Chaleur
7yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 33
Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
49%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA25
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA33 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA33 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA30 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA25 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 46% | -0.20 |
| 19/11/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.40 |
| 01/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |