IvyArcIvyArc
10

Von Baer

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 27

Sha Tin · Tropicbird Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 19/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 11819/11C?C0 @ Happy Valley 03/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f 116BHA39 @ Sha Tin 20/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 39 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 39 par20/1239OR 39C0 @ Sha Tin 04/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 132C0 @ Sha Tin 06/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Slo 1326/05C?C0 @ Happy Valley 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f 130BHA33 @ Sha Tin 13/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 33 · 6f Yie 124 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 33 par13/0633OR 33BHA31 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 31 · 6f Gd 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 31 parC0 @ Happy Valley 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1219/09C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Happy Valley?2nd2nd0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA317th7th0
2026-06-13Sha TinBHA3310th10th0
2026-05-27Happy Valley?6th6th0
2026-05-06Sha Tin?5th5th0
2026-01-04Sha Tin?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/114/0113/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20255th7/163%64%+0.00
03/12/202510th16/116%18%+0.02
20/12/20259th10/147%38%-0.09
04/01/202611th12/137%23%-0.14
06/05/20265th40/10%64%+0.64
27/05/20266th12/137%55%+0.18
13/06/202610th10/147%10%-0.37
27/06/20267th18/15%54%+0.49
09/09/20262nd22/10%91%+0.91